Sentiment & Analysis Timing

In general, the Fearless Forecasters tend to be correct in the short term. Their information is most useful in the beginning of the week. Upon occassion, (situations 5-6 below) it can tell us something about the pending longer term change in trend.

The Smart Money tends to be correct in the beginning of the week, but a little more accurate at the end of the week than the Fearless Forecasters.

If the Senticator is correct early in the week, it loses its predictive value by the week's close, but if the Senticator is incorrect early on in the week, there is an 84% chance of being correct by the business week's end.

When you combine the strengths of each of these polls together with over 12 years of historical interpretation and analysis, you get an invaluable weekly report you shouldn't trade without.

Probable Situation #1

When the Fearless Forecasters are slightly bullish, the Smart Money is strongly Bullish and the Senticator is Bearish, we can expect the week to start Bullish but turn Bearish by week's end.

Probable Situation #2

Similar to Situation #1 above, but the Fearless Forecasters and Smart Money have Neutral tendencies instead of Bullish ones.

Probable Situation #2

Even though the Fearless Forecasters are generally correct towards the begining of the trading week, if ever in doubt, refer to the Smart Money Results. In this case, it implies that the Smart Money is what to keep your eye on at the beginning of the week, but the Senticator has the upper hand towards the end of the week.

Probable Situation #4

If The Fearless Forecasters are Bearish, the Smart Money is less Bearish, and The Senticator is neutral, we can expect a week that starts down, but our confidence in the forecast decreases as the week goes on.

Probable Situations #5-6

This situation is rare, but also where we would actually fade the poll participants. As mentioned above, the only type of situation where there is an extreme preponderance (90% or above) of the participants are bearish (or bullish, see below) then we can expect them to be correct in the very short term, but to also expect a serious swing in the opposite direction by week's end. This often is also indicative of a intermediate-term change in trend.