Equity Guardian Group Indicators:
10 day ARMS
AAII Sentiment - American Association of Individual
Investors
Bollinger Bands - "Trading Bands"
CBI (Coppock Breadth Indicator)
CCI Daily (Commodity Channel Index)
ITBM (Intermediate-Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator)
MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence)
Rydex Ratios
Senticator (Proprietary Sentiment Analysis)
Seasonal Cycle
Stochastic Models/Oscillator
VIX (Volatility Index)
Terminologies and
Abbreviations Used:
LT - Long Term, implying months to years
outlook.
ST - Short Term, implying days to weeks
IT - Intermediate Term, implying weeks to months.
EMA
-Exponential (Weighted) Moving Average
SMA -Simple Moving Average
Overbought or Oversold
Closed-End Funds
VIX -The Volatility Index
MACD 60' -Moving Average
Convergence/Divergence
Pullback
Double-Pump or "Kiss of Death"
Derivative Instruments
Call Options
Using Stops
Discounts/Premiums
ETF's - Exchange Traded Funds
ETF General Q&A
SPDRs - Standard & Poor’s Depositary
Receipts
DIAmonds - As Exchange-traded
securities
HOLDRS - HOLding Company Depositary ReceiptS
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10 day ARMS
Named after its inventor, Richard Arms,
the TRIN ia also called the ARMS Index. This is a solid IT/ST overbought/oversold
indicator based upon breadth and Volume. The key is to demonstrate the relationship of
volume in advancing issues versus declining issues. Normally, we should see more volume
going into advancing issues than declining when the market is rising, unless negative
divergences occur. The same applies in reverse for declining markets. A good chart of the
index will display points where the market is oversold and overbought, as well as where we
occasionally see the divergences between the market and the ARMS.
Usually, when the 10-day ARMS is under
.89 the market is overbought, when over 1.1 the market is oversold. Additionally, this
indicator can point out patterns of distribution or accumulation. We use a 10 day ARMS,
which is calculated by using the moving averages of the components rather than the moving
average of the daily ratio of the components.
[(Last 10 day's Advances) / (Last 10 day's
Declines)]
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[(Last 10 day's Advancing Volume) / (Last 10 day's Declining Volume)]
AAII
Sentiment
The American Association of Individual Investors provides a weekly poll of actual
non-professional sentiment. This can be very useful in determining the attitude of the
non-speculative/ non- professional sentiment. (See Rydex Ratios
and Senticator for more on other sentiment analyses.)
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Bollinger Bands
"Trading Bands" are
lines plotted in and around a price structure to form an envelope. It is the action of
prices near the edges of the envelope that we are interested in. They are one of the most
powerful concepts available to the technically based investor, but they do not, as is
commonly believed, give absolute buy and sell signals based on price touching the bands.
What they do is answer the perennial question of whether prices are high or low on a
relative basis. Armed with this information, an intelligent investor can make buy and sell
decisions by using indicators to confirm price action.
The figure above
shows an example of this technique: Note in particular the use of different envelopes for
cycles of differing lengths. Points A, B, and C
deliniate potential bottoms for this market, wherein D and E represent the potential
highs. The Bollinger Bands can often show maximum upside and downside movement in an
individual stock or an indices. These maximum points are where savvy investors tend to
look for buy or sell signals.
The next major development in the idea of trading bands came in the mid to late 1970s, as
the concept of shifting a moving average up and down by a certain number of points or a
fixed percentage to obtain an envelope around price gained popularity, an approach that is
still employed by many.
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Coppock Breadth Indicator (CBI)
Sedgewick Coppock developed this indicator (originally known as Trendex's Timing
Technique for Texas Traders) some 40 years ago, as a method for reducing risk and
improving returns. To this day, it represents an extremely effective means of allowing
market participation with significantly reduced risk, and we recommend it to investors who
are concerned about the market. In addition, we have found that this tool may be used to
trade short-term moves.
Primarily, though, we use the Coppock Breadth Indicator on the intermediate-term, as a
risk reduction tool. In all the years that we have used this indicator, we have NEVER had
it keep us long in a significant bear move. A daily reading of the CBI, vs. its
exponential is given each day in the Guardian Checklist and the Guardian FundTrader.
Those who are so inclined can keep this indicator
themselves and can find the calculations in any old issue of Trendex or its successor
publication, C. W. Bleser's Market Timing Insights.
Intermediate-term Traders should Sell the Friday
following any drop by the CBI of 0.3 beneath the exponential, barring any
contrary buy signals. We have found that this decreases whipsaws and adds some value. We
will always advise of this in the newsletters. Also, traders should buy the Friday after a
move of 0.3 above the exponential, barring a contrary sell signals.
Traders should stay generally long while the bias is
Positive, and generally hedged while bias is Negative. One very viable alternative to
selling upon a 0.3 violation of the exponential is to then use a moving 1% stop. It is
recommended that traders utilize high relative strength funds and equities. Our
recommended holding (we limit this to a single fund, though obviously traders should
consider others if they have another reliable fund selection technique).
One of the benefits of the CBI, is that it allows traders
to hold more volatile funds without bearing the burden of all of the attendant risk.
Reduced market risk allows investors to take increased security risk. Obviously, though,
security selection should be based upon appropriate and well founded discpline. Many trend
following and momentum disciplines work extremely well with the Coppock Breadth Indicator.
Additionally, the CBI can be used to determine intervals when short sales should be
considered. We have found that intervals of rising interest rates, negative 55-day vs.
21-day TRIN, and negative CBI represent relatively low risk shorting opportunities.
Short term traders should look for a decline
when the CBI is 0.5 above the exponential, or, if on an Intermediate-term sell, upon a
move by the CBI against the Exponential. Conversely, they should look for a rally when the
CBI is 0.6 beneath, or if on a buy, when the CBI falls against the Exponential.
In the example above, traders would want to buy when the Coppock Breadth Indicator fell
from 196.4 to 195.9, (first arrow pointing down in from the left) which was against its
exponential. Similarly, when the CBI was 196.4, 0.5 above its exponential, traders would
want to short in order to profit from any further decline. The up arrows indicate buys and
the down arrows represent sell signals.
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The
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI was developed by Donald Lambert, as a means of identifying cyclical
turns in commodities. Typically, commodities (or stocks or bonds) move in cycles, with
peaks and troughs coming at periodic intervals. You can chose the length of the cycle
yourself to fit your needs. Lambert recommended using 33% of a complete cycle (peak to
peak) as a time frame for the CCI. We typically use our proprietary version of the CCI to
help identify price reversals, price extremes and occasionally the strength of the trend.
ITBM
(Intermediate-Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator)
We credit Carl Swenlin (of
DecisionPoint.com and Traders-Talk.com fame) with the creation of the ITBM and thank him
for bringing it to our attention some years ago. Mr. Swenlin developed the ITBM to add a
new perspective to interpretation of the McClellan Oscillator.
We have found this to be very sensitive and a much more realistic depiction of
the flow of money into or out of stocks. In addition, we have become somewhat adept over
the years, at noting certain correlations between the ITBM and imminent market action.
As you can see in the chart
above, the highs in the ITBM (the bottom chart) tend to be correlated with the highs in
the market (the NYSE chart on top). The lows in the ITBM tend to be correlated with the
lows in the market as well.
To calculate the ITBM, Mr. Swenlin advises us to add the daily McClellan Oscillator
(Ratio-Adjusted) to the daily 10% exponential average (Ratio-Adjusted), then calculate a
20 day exponential average (0.10 exponent) of the result.
The ITBM is a highly sensitive breadth indicator. Generally, it is bullish if it is above
zero and rising. It is generally bearish if it is below zero and falling. Obviously, below
zero and rising is better than above zero and falling. A downturn below zero is very
bearish, short term. Double or triple bottoms below zero can be quite bullish.
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The MACD
The MACD, invented by Gerald Appel, stands for "Moving Average
Convergence-Divergence". This tool identifies and measures the trend of the market
and gives an indication of likely importance of that trend. The MACD (pronounced
"Mack Dee") can be used over multiple time frame charts from 1-minute to monthly
and quarterly charts.
The MACD, when used in its "line" form, incorporates three exponential moving
averages (EMA's) to produce two chart lines. The first line is the fast MACD Line, and is
almost always represented by a blue or green line. The second line is the slow Signal
Line,or a 9-period EMA, which is represented by a red line. The standard MACD indicator is the result of plotting the
fast and slow lines, and watching for when the fast line crosses the slow line.
These lines fluctuate with market
direction. When analysts use this as a trend following tool, the MACD is a simple
crossover indicator with very simple buy/sell signals. You buy when the blue or
"fast" MACD Line crosses above the "slow" red Signal Line, and you
sell when the MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line. Even used in this very simple
manner, with nothing else, the indicator can provide the basis of a perfectly adequate
trend following system that will stay in synch with the trend.
Another way we use the MACD is to look for certain patterns, such as a "Kiss of Death" where the MACD rises to just "kiss"
the signal line before turning down. This is very bearish. Similarly there is the
"Double Pump" where the MACD crosses over its signal line and then crosses back.
This often brings a fast and relatively dramatic move in the direction of the cross-over.
We use a combination of hourly, daily and weekly MACD readings to fine tune your buying
and selling. Some folks take the direction of your trade from the MACD indicator on your
weekly chart, but picking your exact entry point from the MACD reading on the daily chart.
(If it's a buy entry you're looking for, you'd want the weekly indicator to be bullishly
rising but the daily indicator to dropping, so you get an advantageous entry price). We
have found that the weekly MACD is more useful when the direction of the fast line is
considered instead of the cross over the signal line. One caveat, the MACD should only be
considered on a closing basis. Many is the time that the Daily MACD appears to be giving a
Sell during the day, but rebounds and actually generates a Buy. On the Weekly MACD, this
is only more valid.
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Rydex
Ratios
We find that a very important aspect
of trading has to do with where other traders believe the market is heading. These
sentiments are traditionally measured by taking polls of selected groups of investors,
advisors, investing individuals and professionals. But of course, there are usually some
problems associated with this methodology: (a) Many polls are taken over a period of
several days, during which time market movement and investor outlook can change radically,
and (b) The responses are strictly subjective, reflecting the emotional status of the
person being polled, not necessarily his/her investment position.
The idea
behind using sentiment indicators is that we are trying to determine when investors have
reached a "saturation point" of bullishness or bearishness. You see, tops are
formed when everybody who is going to buy has bought, and bottoms occur after there is no
one left to sell, but this is difficult to reflect in a simple poll.
The first Rydex Ratios were based
upon only two very small mutal funds, URSA (bear) and NOVA (bull). But since then, new
funds have been added by Rydex, with over 20 funds with assets well approaching $7
billion. This is a very stable platform from which to derive indicators.
Rather than measuring someone's
vague opinion about market direction, the Rydex Ratios present specific information about
where people are actually putting their money. We look at the reationships between the
assets flowing into Bull, Bear, and Cash funds in order to evaluate not just what people
say their sentiment is, but what they are actually doing.
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The
Senticator
A proprietary and highly accurate Sentiment indicator. Takes into consideration the
current buying positions of traders and the atmosphere of the market as well as other
indices. You can read about the Senticator in the explanation of the Institutional
Sentiment and Analysis Newsletter tab.
Seasonal Cycles
Most (10 to 1) market performance over the past 100 years has occured during the
positive cycle and most of the Bear Markets occur during the negative Seasonal Cycle.
In the chart above notice the
red arrows pointing at the beginnings of the negative Seasonal Cycle, as the green arrows
point to the traditional beginnings of the positive Seasonal Cycle.
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Stochastic
Models/Stochastic Oscillator
The Stochastic Oscillator is a measure of the relative momentum of current prices to
previous closing prices within a given interval. When it is plotted, it is two lines that
move within a range of 0 and 100. Values above 80 are considered to be in overbought
territory giving an indication that a reversal in price is possible. Values below 20 are
considered oversold and again are an indication that a reversal of the price trend is a
higher risk. In a strong trending environment, the Stochastic Oscillator can stay in
overbought or oversold territory for some time while price continues in a single
direction. In relation to a longer term price trend environment, the stochastic provides
little interest. In its construction it is meant to relate the current periods momentum to
the most recent previous periods of momentum in price in an attempt to identify periods
where momentum may be easing or increasing. The easing (at a top) or increase (at a
bottom) of momentum occurs at reversal points for the price trend being measured. However
changing momentum also occurs during times when there is no change in the overall trend in
prices and should be understood as a period when a reversal in price trend is possible but
not guaranteed.
A shorter period Stochastic represents the trend development for a shorter period of time.
Not always is a change in the price momentum also a change in the price trend of a stock.
For any technical indications of potential future price trend development, it is important
to build a wide body of evidence when developing an expectation for future prices. At a
reading of zero, the Stochastic Oscillator implies that the securities close is at the
lowest price that it has traded during the preceding x periods (x being defined as the
number of periods in the calculation).
At a reading of 100, the Stochastic Oscillator implies the securities close is at the
highest price it has traded during the period of the calculation. The basis for
interpreting the stochastic is the assumption that prices tend to close near the upper
part of a trading range during an up trend and near the lower part during a downtrend. In
addition, extreme periods are often followed by a reversal of price trend and so are
called "over-bought" and "over-sold" area's. Not always will a
reversal follow periods when the Stochastic is in over-bought or over-sold area's, however
the presence in over-bought and over-sold alerts a trader to look for further evidence
that a price trend reversal may be near.
Other interpretive qualities of the Stochastic Oscillator is the search for divergences
between the oscillator and price. A divergence of peaks is often followed by a drop in
price. A divergence of troughs often precedes a rise in price. Notice that divergences can
go against the larger price trend suggesting caution and lower price projections as each
new segment of price trend emerges. Divergences also can continue for extended periods
before any evidence of price trend reversal occurs. A divergence that occurs over a
shorter period of time would suggest a shorter term outlook on the reaction in prices. A
divergence that continues over a longer period of time would represent a larger pool of
activity and would be expected to result in longer and larger period of new price trend
should a reversal in price trend result after a long period of divergence between and
indicator and price.
The Stochastic is made up of two lines, the dotted line is called the %D which is a moving
average of the %K which is a calculation of the securities highest high minus the lowest
low as the denominator and the close of the current period minus the lowest low computed
as a ratio, converted to decimals and multiplied by 100.
A buy signal is given when the oscillator falls below 20 and then rises above 20,
indicating a return of interest in the stock. This type of interpretation requires other
supporting evidence to avoid whipsaws or failed signals. A sell signal is given when the
oscillator rises above 80 and then falls below 80. The signal is the re-entry into the
mid-zone for the indicator after being in over-bought or oversold territory. This
interpretation works poorly in a strong trending environment. Traders also look for
crossovers of the fast stochastic (solid red) and the smoothed (dotted lines) looking for
confirming evidence of a signal to buy or sell.
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The Volatility
Index (ticker symbol VIX)
The VIX a measurement used to depict fear and optimism in OEX options activity. When many
traders become fearful, the VIX rises, and when complacency about the market dominates,
the VIX falls. What does this mean? Well, as you may know, the vast majority of put/call
buyers are wrong and have the tendency to lose money. How we make money is by
"fading" the trading community at large. If they lose, we win by going against
the grain. In this case, only the dead fish swim with the stream.
We will often employ the use of Bollinger Bands for the purpose of noting its position
within the bands.The charts we use show the wide range of the VIX over time and also show
how the bands help define the limits of overbought and oversold under various market
conditions.
With regard to stock prices and index levels, the VIX
measures the change in price as a percentage without regard to direction. This means that
a rise of 1% is equivalent to a 1% decline. Volatility expresses movement- in either
direction. We look at the future volatility, becasue it is this that option pricing
formulas need as an input in order to calculate the theoretical (and therefore estimated)
value of an option.
Implied volatility is the volatility percentage that
explains the current market price of an option; it is the common denominator of option
prices. Just as p/e ratios allow comparisons of stock prices over a range of variables
such as total earnings and number of shares outstanding, implied volatility enables
comparison of options on different underlying instruments and comparison of the same
option at different times. Theoretical value of an option is a statistical concept, and
traders should focus on relative value, not absolute value. The terms
"overvalued" and "undervalued" describe a relationship between implied
volatility and expected volatility. Two traders could differ in their opinion of the
relative value of the same option if they have different market forecasts and trading
styles.
This is why experience and other indicators are erssential when determining diifference
between an educated decision and a big mistake.
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The
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI was developed by Donald Lambert, as a means of identifying cyclical
turns in commodities. Typically, commodities (or stocks or bonds) move in cycles, with
peaks and troughs coming at periodic intervals. You can chose the length of the cycle
yourself to fit your needs. Lambert recommended using 33% of a complete cycle (peak to
peak) as a time frame for the CCI. We typically use our proprietary version of the CCI to
help identify price reversals, price extremes and occasionally the strength of the trend.
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EMA vs. SMA
Exponential (Weighted) Moving Averages vs. The Simple Moving Average. The latter is
calculated by adding the data of the last x days, then dividing the result by x. The
average "moves" and changes each day as the oldest value is dropped out of the
calculation and the new day's value added in. An Exponentially weighted Moving Average has
the additonal advantage of placing more weight on the more recent value, and is calculated
with the previous day's values instead of an entire string of values.
"Overbought"
and "Oversold"
Overbought means that the market has run out of buyers, and oversold means that the market
has run out of sellers. Usually these terms are interpreted as meaning that the the market
has reached an extreme limit in one direction or the other, and that a retracement or
consolidation is likely to take place.
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Closed-end funds
A type of mutual fund. Like ETFs, these funds differ from open-end mutual funds in that
they trade throughout the day over an exchange. Unlike ETFs, however, they have no
mechanism to prevent them from trading at substantial premiums or discounts to their
net asset values.
VIX Daily
This is the Volatility Index with a Bollinger Band measures
exteremes of sentiment, so when the vix closes above the top band at the end of the day,
it sets up a buy signal, and when it closes below the band, it sets up a sell
signal. A contrarian indicator.
VIX 30'
The VIX (Volatility Index) using a MACD overlay on a 30 minute VIX chart. A MACD
crossover indicates a change in short-term sentiment, and can give signals to either go
long or short. A rising VIX is bearish, while a falling VIX is bullish.
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MACD 60'
The MACD overlay on an hourly chart. We use this on the SPX.
Pullback
A retracement of an advance. A modest decline after an advancement of a stock, fund, or
index. No specific time period is required, can be within minutes, days, or months.
Derivative Instruments
These are are contracts, such as options and futures, whose price is derived from the
price of an underlying financial asset which is the security or property or loan agreement
that an option gives the option holder the right to buy or to sell.
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Call Option
An option contract that gives its holder the right (but not the obligation) to purchase a
specified number of shares of the underlying stock at the given strike price, on or before
the expiration date of the contract.
Stops
A stop-limit order is a stop order that designates a price limit. Unlike the stop order,
which becomes a market order once the stop is reached, the stop-limit order becomes a
limit order.
A stop-loss order is an order to sell a stock when the
price falls to a specified level.
A stop order (or stop) is an order to buy or sell at the market when a definite price is
reached, either above (on a buy) or below (on a sell) the price that prevailed when the
order was given.
Discount/Premium
Discount/Premium can be thought of as an index that oscillates above and below a
horizontal line representing the item's intrinsic value. When it can be measured, the
presence of the premium or discount usually indicates the direction of the trend. For
example, something bought at a premium indicates the trend, or liklihood of its intrinsic
value, being increased over time. As a rule of thumb, the average closed-end fund
discount/ premium published each week in Barron's is probably a good gage for the broader
market.
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SPDRs(R) - Standard & Poor’s Depositary Receipts - are Exchange-traded
securities that represent ownership in the SPDR Trust, a long-term unit investment trust
which has been established to accumulate and hold a portfolio of common stocks that is
intended to generally correspond to the performance and dividend yield of the Standard
& Poor’s 500 Composite Stock Price Index(R). SPDRs(R) are
designed to provide a security whose market value approximates 1/10 the value of the
underlying S&P 500 Index(R). Holders of SPDRs(R) are entitled to
receive proportionate quarterly distributions corresponding to the dividends which accrue
on the S&P 500 stocks in the underlying portfolio, less accumulated Trust expenses.
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DIAMONDS(R) are Exchange-traded securities that represent ownership in the
DIAMONDS Trust, a long-term unit investment trust established to accumulate and hold a
portfolio of the common stocks that comprise the Dow Jones Industrial AverageSM
(DJIASM). DIAMONDS(R) are intended to provide investment results
that generally correspond to the price performance and dividend yield of the DJIA, and
their market value approximates 1/100 the value of the underlying DJIA. There is no
assurance that the performance of the DJIA can be fully matched. DIAMONDS(R)
holders are entitled to receive monthly distributions corresponding to accrued dividends
on the DJIA stocks in the underlying portfolio, less accumulated Trust expenses.
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HOLDRSSM - HOLding Company Depositary ReceiptSSM -- launched by
Merrill Lynch & Co. are Depository Receipts issued by the HOLDRS Trust representing
individual and undivided ownership interest in the common stock of companies involved in a
specific segment of a particular industry.
HOLDRS can provide diversified exposure to a particular industry, sector or group.
However, with HOLDRS you keep ownership benefits related to the underlying stocks. You
retain the right to vote shares, to receive dividends and to sell the stock when you want
to.
Please note that HOLDRS will only be introduced on SGX at a later date.
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Exchange Traded Funds, like SPYders, Vipers, Cubes, DIAmonds, HOLDRs, QQQ and iShares
are all examples of ETFs. The broad class of funds, excluding closed-end funds, which
trade throughout the day over an exchange. ETFs have low annual expenses, but you must pay
comissions to trade them. ETFs do not redeem shares for cash, and thus do not need to sell
securities (possibly realizing capital gains) to pay investors who redeem their shares.
They are typically more tax-efficient than mutual funds. Most ETFs are index funds.
ETFs represent shares in either fund or unit trusts that hold portfolios of stocks,
and are designed to track the performance of their underlying portfolios of stocks. ETFs
give investors the opportunity to buy or sell an entire portfolio of stocks in a single
security, as easily as buying or selling a stock.
You can buy or sell ETFs through your dealer/remisier, just like buying a stock.
You will be able to buy or sell ETFs in the same way as stocks throughout the trading day.
This is much easier than traditional index mutual funds or unit trusts, which can usually
be purchased or redeemed only at an end-of-day closing price.
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Indexing, often called "passive management," involves investing in a group of
stocks that represent the composition of a broad-market, sector, or international index.
Index funds offer "market level" performance, and aim to match the market
performance of a specific index. Passive indexed investments, generally have lower
management and expense fees.
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These are several advantages of investing in ETFs:
buy and sell at any time during the trading day instantly get exposure to a portfolio of
stocks of your choice no high management and sponsor fees
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ETF products are designed to provide investment results that generally correspond to the
price and yield performance of their underlying portfolios of securities. Of course,
because of the forces of supply and demand and other market factors, there may be times
when an ETF trades at a premium or discount to its fair value.
One market mechanism that helps to keep an ETF trading at a price close to the value of
its underlying portfolio is arbitrage. Because ETFs are both created from the stocks of an
underlying portfolio and can be redeemed into the stocks of an underlying portfolio on any
day arbitrage traders may move to profit from any price discrepancies between the ETFs and
the portfolio, which in turn helps to close the price gap between the two.
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Not necessarily. The share price of many ETFs is set at a percentage of the Index upon
which they are based. As an example, if the Nasdaq-100 Index® were at 4200 then the share
price of the Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking StockSM (QQQ), at approximately 1/40th the value of
the Index, would be approximately $105 per share.
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The minimum purchase is 10 shares for S&P 500 SPDRs®, DJIA DIAMONDS, iSharesSM
S&P 500 Index Fund and iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Sector Index Fund.
ETFs are "created" by large investors and institutions in block- sized units of
shares (or multiples thereof) known as "Creation Units" of a respective ETF. A
creation requires a deposit with the trustee of a specified number of shares of a
portfolio of stocks closely approximating the composition of a specific index and cash
equal to accumulated dividends in return for specific Index Shares. Similarly, block-sized
units of ETFs can be redeemed in return for a portfolio of stocks approximating the index
and a specified amount of cash. A unit of 50,000 shares (or multiples thereof) is required
to create SDPRs, Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock, Select Sector Funds and DIAMONDS, while
a unit of 25,000 shares is required to create MidCap SPDRs.
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